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A while back Rew posted a link to this article in the Florida Sun Sentinel about sexually violent predators and involuntary civil commitment
http://tinyurl.com/mxvzhtj
It's sensationalist journalism at its worst and it sparked all kinds of congressional hearings, talk of reform and even more restrictive legislation. Another result of the fallout was the resignation of Dan Montaldi, the head of the Sexually Violent Predator Program. The series of articles includes one that talks about an audit report of the program performed by an independent panel cherry picking statements that supported the Sun Sentinel's fear mongering.
http://tinyurl.com/o7rnj3t
What the Sun Sentinel left out of that article is that report also directly addressed the Sun Sentinel investigation and pointed out the Sexually Violent Predator Program produces a high false alarm rate meaning it overestimates risk.
"As reflected in the statistics, the salient issue is the “false alarm” rate. This is error related to failing to identify offenders who do not fall into the highly dangerous and predatory group. These are the 96.4% (135 out of 140) of offenders observed in the OPPAGA study who were deemed to be dangerous but did not reoffend and the 90% (639 out of 710) of offenders in the SVPP Study that were deemed to be dangerous but did not reoffend. For those deemed to be so dangerous that they may be committed indefinitely – and cared for at great expense to the state – this false positive rate appears high."
What follows below is the section of the report that addresses the Sun Sentinel Investigation. A PDF of the complete report is available here: http://tinyurl.com/mgk22w6
Florida Sun Sentinel Investigation
The investigation reported in the Sun Sentinel article (8/18/13) entitled, “Sex
Predators Unleashed,” also shed light on offenders who were referred to the Program. The SVPP, through a public records request, provided the journalists from the Sun Sentinel with data on 31,626 referrals. Recidivism data on the sample was obtained by the journalists from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement through computer searches. Out of the 31,626 men, approximately
1500 or so were recommended for commitment by the SVPP. Thus, since the Florida law went into effect in 1999, approximately 30,000 of these referrals were not recommended for commitment.
The total number of offenders from the 31,626 who obtained a sexual charge or conviction was 1,384 offenders. That would be calculated as a 4.61% sexual recidivism rate. Actually the number of re-offenders among those who were not recommended is slightly lower. The reason for this is that within that 1,384 there are included a number of re-offenders who were recommended (i.e. 31,626). The SVPP program identified 71 of that group of re-offenders, which actually left 1,311 offenders in the “not recommended but re-offended” group.
Using the correct figures, this actually amounts to a 4.4% recidivism rate. Another way to say this is: Out of the 30,000 offenders not recommended for commitment, 95.6% did not re-offend.
The article further indicated that 594 of the 30,000 offenders who were not recommended for commitment, obtained new sex offense convictions. This amounts to a 1.98% conviction rate (594/30,000 x 100% = 1.98%). This is to say that less than 2% of the 30,000 obtained new convictions for a sexual offense. Another way to say this is that 98% of the individuals not recommended for commitment, were not convicted of additional sexual offenses.
The article also indicated that 130 offenders among the 594 with new convictions had rape convictions. This amounts to a 0.43% rape conviction rate (130/30,000 x 100% = 0.43%). Less than 1% of the 30,000 offenders who were not recommended for commitment obtained new rape convictions. Another way to say this is that over 99% of the offenders not recommended for commitment did not go on to be convicted of rape.
The article also indicated that 14 of the 594 men, who had new convictions, were sexual murderers. This amounts to a 0.047 sex related murder rate (14/30,000 x 100% =0.047%). In other words, less than five one-hundredths of 1% of those not referred for commitment were convicted of a sexual murder. Obviously, one of the limitations of these findings is that some offenders commit sexual offenses without getting detected by law enforcement authorities.
http://tinyurl.com/mxvzhtj
It's sensationalist journalism at its worst and it sparked all kinds of congressional hearings, talk of reform and even more restrictive legislation. Another result of the fallout was the resignation of Dan Montaldi, the head of the Sexually Violent Predator Program. The series of articles includes one that talks about an audit report of the program performed by an independent panel cherry picking statements that supported the Sun Sentinel's fear mongering.
http://tinyurl.com/o7rnj3t
What the Sun Sentinel left out of that article is that report also directly addressed the Sun Sentinel investigation and pointed out the Sexually Violent Predator Program produces a high false alarm rate meaning it overestimates risk.
"As reflected in the statistics, the salient issue is the “false alarm” rate. This is error related to failing to identify offenders who do not fall into the highly dangerous and predatory group. These are the 96.4% (135 out of 140) of offenders observed in the OPPAGA study who were deemed to be dangerous but did not reoffend and the 90% (639 out of 710) of offenders in the SVPP Study that were deemed to be dangerous but did not reoffend. For those deemed to be so dangerous that they may be committed indefinitely – and cared for at great expense to the state – this false positive rate appears high."
What follows below is the section of the report that addresses the Sun Sentinel Investigation. A PDF of the complete report is available here: http://tinyurl.com/mgk22w6
Florida Sun Sentinel Investigation
The investigation reported in the Sun Sentinel article (8/18/13) entitled, “Sex
Predators Unleashed,” also shed light on offenders who were referred to the Program. The SVPP, through a public records request, provided the journalists from the Sun Sentinel with data on 31,626 referrals. Recidivism data on the sample was obtained by the journalists from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement through computer searches. Out of the 31,626 men, approximately
1500 or so were recommended for commitment by the SVPP. Thus, since the Florida law went into effect in 1999, approximately 30,000 of these referrals were not recommended for commitment.
The total number of offenders from the 31,626 who obtained a sexual charge or conviction was 1,384 offenders. That would be calculated as a 4.61% sexual recidivism rate. Actually the number of re-offenders among those who were not recommended is slightly lower. The reason for this is that within that 1,384 there are included a number of re-offenders who were recommended (i.e. 31,626). The SVPP program identified 71 of that group of re-offenders, which actually left 1,311 offenders in the “not recommended but re-offended” group.
Using the correct figures, this actually amounts to a 4.4% recidivism rate. Another way to say this is: Out of the 30,000 offenders not recommended for commitment, 95.6% did not re-offend.
The article further indicated that 594 of the 30,000 offenders who were not recommended for commitment, obtained new sex offense convictions. This amounts to a 1.98% conviction rate (594/30,000 x 100% = 1.98%). This is to say that less than 2% of the 30,000 obtained new convictions for a sexual offense. Another way to say this is that 98% of the individuals not recommended for commitment, were not convicted of additional sexual offenses.
The article also indicated that 130 offenders among the 594 with new convictions had rape convictions. This amounts to a 0.43% rape conviction rate (130/30,000 x 100% = 0.43%). Less than 1% of the 30,000 offenders who were not recommended for commitment obtained new rape convictions. Another way to say this is that over 99% of the offenders not recommended for commitment did not go on to be convicted of rape.
The article also indicated that 14 of the 594 men, who had new convictions, were sexual murderers. This amounts to a 0.047 sex related murder rate (14/30,000 x 100% =0.047%). In other words, less than five one-hundredths of 1% of those not referred for commitment were convicted of a sexual murder. Obviously, one of the limitations of these findings is that some offenders commit sexual offenses without getting detected by law enforcement authorities.
Seriously, and I am serious---what the hell is wrong with Florida? I can understand backward and ignorant people here in Oklahoma, as the state is just filled with rednecks and hillbillies, and education is not a priority. Many young men and women here just accept that working at a place like Wal Mart is a life long proposition and they follow in uncle Billy Bobs footsteps to work there.
But I thought Florida had some intelligent, educated people. And don't some retirees move there and live as they retire? Some of them surely have a reasonable amount of intelligence?
Is it all the sunlight? Florida and Arizona are both wacko, so maybe the sun has Sheepalized them.
I can't quite figure it out. Is it because some people have their heads in the sand so damn deep that they cannot see the truth? Or are they like so many others who are just willfully ignorant and want to stay that way? Some people cannot see---or accept----that this country is becoming a joke.
Patriotism is noble, but questioning our governments actions in so many areas has nothing to do with patriotism. Not questiong is ENABLING bad behaviou by our government.
Better stop before I have to take another blood pressure pill.
rewdiazepam
While the rebuttal article is good is it going to make any difference? Please say yes ...