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They have the evidence to convict him. Going to trial would be very foolish unless his attorney can get enough evidence thrown out to force the prosecutor to drop the charges completely.
He would be making a grave mistake if he decided to go to trial. One guy in Arizona went to trial on child porn charges and received 200 years.
If he decides to go to trial, you can bet the prosecutor will try him on several counts and stack the charges in such a way as to give him a long sentence. If he pleas, the prosecutor might drop all the charges except one or run all the charges together, which would make his sentence shorter.
If there is a young lady victim involved, the jury would bury him at trial. If she gets on the witness stand and makes for a good witness---with tears, especially if she is very young----the emotional aspect will take over and the jury will completely bury him.
And no, it is extremely unlikely that he would get less time from a jury than he would from a negotiated plea.
His best bet is to have his attorney get him the best plea deal possible from the prosecutor.
Good luck,
rewdiazepam
Yes many times taking a plea will turn out better than a jury trial depending on the area and that jury's education of the facts. If this was more of a sting situation, there are chances of bad work on the LE's side and much evidence can get thrown out, but again, it depends on the case.
If you do not have permission to see all documents and things from the case, granted and signed off by your BF then you are probably not getting all the information that is there surrounding the case. Which means you have no way of knowing if a plea would be better than taking it to trial.
I have learned that taking a plea isn't always what it is cracked up to be. That the burden of proof beyond a shadow of a doubt is on the prosecution and they will use all sorts of scare tactics to push folks into pleas. Now if there was a screwup made by your BF and they have some signed statement that hangs him then a plea is the direction to head... but if their evidence isn't cut and dried like that, consult a good attorney (most of the time a consult is free if you can give them enough information in your initial call) and then go from there. Had the prosecution for my husband not had such evidence I would have encouraged him to fight, but due to a stupid mistake he made early on, it really did screw him going forward and now for life.
Each case is uniquely different, as are ALL court cases, for there are human beings involved, so their motivations, expectations, and determinations are all usually different or they should be. Another thing the court systems do wrong, they try to fit everyone into some kind of mold, but we are all unique so that just isn't possible.
With a Public Pretender (I mean Defender), the chances of winning at trial is even lower, as they don't spend time or energy to fight these cases, they push for plea deals.
Weigh all your options, and you both have to decide what is best for you.
If they found a dozen images on his hard drive, they can prosecute him on all 12 counts. The prison time can then be greatly increased.
Jurors are not usually lenient with sex offenders at trial, especially if the charges include a young victim.
Then he has to ascertain if he will get more time when he is convicted than he would if he pleads out.
If he is offered a completely unacceptable plea bargain which includes a very long sentence, then he does not have much to lose by going to trial. In this case, he is gambling that the jury will give him a lesser sentence than the plea he was offered.
But going to trial in this case would be a considerable roll of the dice.
If he is offered a really decent plea bargain, he had better take it, as CP cases are almost impossible to win at trial.
His attorney and your bf will have to look at the evidence and the charges and determine whether he can get less time at trial or with a plea.
You said, "I think he's hoping that going to trial will give him the chance to tell his side."
I sincerely hope that he is not counting on being able to "explain away" any CP they found on his hard drive. The jury is not likely to put much credence in anything he says as a defendant. Once they are shown the images, the jury will be really upset.
I believe the federal mandatory minimum for receipt of CP is five years per count, while there is no mandatory minimum for possession. Now remember this is per count, so if they prosecute him with 12 images, he is looking at a lot of prison time.
Good luck.
rewdiazepam
I see your BF is caught up in the theatrics and fairy tale world of the legal system. Telling his side is like talking without an attorney when you are arrested. In cases where there are files, time stamps and other HARD data like that, it won't matter what his story is, the why's of it. The jury is instructed to only look at the facts (even though their real job is to look at the WHOLE case evidence, circumstances, etc.) so because they are not well versed in the legal system they do as they are told by the judge which is only half the story and their jobs.. But I digress, depending on the number of counts/charges that he has been indicted for he will could get charged for each and everyone. This is a tactic by the prosecution to drive people to a plea, tack on every count they can and any 'felony enhancers' they can that will just add more aggravation and so they have something to wheel and deal with that won't take the teeth out the whole thing... it is a friggin' racket.
Rew is right, if he has more than one or two counts, is should really consider the plea, maybe get the charges reduced... Although, it isn't him that offers the plea usually, it is the prosecution that offers it, now if your PD is any good they might be able to negotiate something better, but if the prosecution thinks they are a slam dunk case, they may not budge much on their deal they offer... But without all the information about his case, and I assure you there is a ton that you probably don't even know about as he has not give you any powers to review any of that stuff, which means he might be hiding it from you too. If you want to be more informed about his case, ask him out right for permission to talk to his attorney and get it in writing or the attorney won't honor it, and find out for yourself. if he refuses, there are big question marks popping up about why....
My son accidentally downloaded 2 cp he deleted. He got 30 months in federal and he's now on the registry and has 15 years probation. We spent over $120,000 on lawyers, forensics , etc. He probably would have gotten more time if we only had a PD.