Zoom out zoom In
Experts are good at base rates but not predicting.... Also entrepreneurs are usually optimistic about their business because they only look at their " individual approach" they don't take too much into account of usual statistics. Which leads to inside view our evaluation of our specific situation. Outside view how things generally unfold. While the inside view may have some bearing both must be considered. Can't find base rates ask around on personal accounts even reviews on websites.
A close up can add texture that's missing.. taking in actual investigation or experiment. Or reading samples.
Zoom out and zoom in :)
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This reminds me of how I’m trained as an EMT. When we get to a scene we size up the area for safety. Then approaching the patient get a general impression: sick, hurt, just basic stuff. (Outward) Then the assessment goes inward with vitals and questions.