What Does VR Games Mean?
Over the last couple of years, we've seen an array of news posts about how virtual reality was going to conserve the classic arcade. The idea goes that the VR gear is too expensive for home users, therefore it creates an chance for arcadereview.org operators to pony up the big dollars to purchase it and make their money back by charging a game to play with it. Much Nolan Bushnell, the inventor of Pong, is attempting to hype the tech since the industry's savior. From the MIT Technology Review.
"While many high-end cans were released annually that can bring virtual-reality experiences to your living room, adoption of the technology remains in its first days to get a bunch of reasons--it is still bulky, expensive, and there is not all that much to do as soon as you've got it on your face. Over two million cans were sent worldwide in 2016, according to an estimate from market researcher Canalys, but this figure pales compared to the prevalence of, say, video game consoles (earnings of the top one, Sony's PS4, topped six million during the 2016 holiday season alone). Consumer virtual reality will likely catch on as prices come down and cans improve. In the meantime, though, a number of businesses are betting that consumers may be happy to cover a much smaller amount to try the technology with their buddies at, say, an arcade, theme park, or even bowling alley."
It is tempting to fall into this snare, but in the operator's standpoint VR is a terrible deal. Aside from purchasing a brand-new car and driving it a mile, I can't think about a way that you could lose money faster between what you pay and what you'll have the ability to get for it down the road.
Another limitation for most operators is that while you may have the ability to provide a space for VR individuals to roam around in now, as new VR technology is unveiled, we're likely to see the stage expanded from 100 square feet into the whole world. Rather than viewing just the matches from your headset, you will realize the real world with sport play overlayed. Kids can go to the park and relive the knights of the round table or parking garages to shoot aliens. Since the technology allows more real world places to be researched, it is going to earn a cramped arcade seem pretty lame in comparison.
VR is already heading for mass market acceptance, but it is demand is not being driven by gamers who wish to pay big buck to play video games, but like the BETAMAX that came before it, by people who wish to watch pornography in their homes.
Even if an operator can make a bit of money for the next few years, once VR achieves critical mass, it is going to crush whatever earnings stream that operators are dreaming of. Don't believe me? Just check out what is happening in China.
This past year, an eye popping 35,000 virtual reality arcades opened up in China. A year after 22,000 of these have closed.
That is an incredible failure rate over this brief period of time and one which should function as a sharp warning to anyone contemplating investing in the VR games. Perhaps Dave and Busters can afford to take losses on the matches longer than Chinese startup arcades, but I doubt most North American operators are going to fare far better with the tech in their match rooms and will just wind up in debt in the end of the day.
The issue essentially boils down to customers not being willing to pay a premium to the experience. Tech In Asia, describes the issue perfectly in their own article, on that the Chinese VR boom and bust.
"Enterprising store owners jumped into VR are finding it impossible to bill fees akin to cinemas or bowling alleys for a VR experience. One VR arcade owner told iHeima that he saw excited queues when charging US$1.50 to get a 30-minute session, but everyone disappeared as it climbed to US$5. From that sort of revenue it is not possible to cover the lease."
Even if the match was sold out daily, at $1.50 per half hour they're only earning $30 a day. Together with retail rents in North America running $1 -- $2 a square foot, there is no way to make the math work, even if you assume that Americans will pay more to play the games.
The actual world information streaming in from China should function as a canary in the quarter plantations of North America. Operators who spend large amounts of money on fancy VR setups will soon find their small VR rooms being substituted by the whole world for a stage. Since the installations get more expensive, smaller and more portable, the digital arcades will seem more costly, bulky and limited.
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