Phillies Have Reportedly Shown Interest In Jean Segura

I don’t think it is a given they will take back Santana, but if they do…

Phillies get: ($64M value) ~ extra $3M in value is for cash depreciation

(Value) Pos Name (contract)

($58M) SS Jean Segura ($59M – $14.75M x 4 years)
(-$5M) RP Juan Nicasio ($9.25M x 1 year)
(-$4M) RP Anthony Swarzak ($8.5M x 1 year)
($10M) RP Dan Altavilla (5 years of control, 2 pre-arb, PA native)
($6M) Cash or low level reliever prospect

Mariners get: ($61M value)

(Value) Pos Name (contract)

(-$32M) 1B Carlos Santana $20.5M x 2 years)
($20M) SP Nick Pivetta (5 years of control, 2 pre-arb, BC native)
($15M) 2B Scott Kingery ($23M over 5 years)
($53M) SP Sixto Sanchez (6+ years of control)
($5M) SP David Parkinson (6+ years of control)

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Segura is worth about the same as James Paxton ($60M) and Kyle Tucker ($55M), meaning Sixto ($53M) plus Pivetta ($20M) for Segura ($58M) and Altavilla ($10M) and $2M/year for 2020-2022 ($6M) is fair value.

link to fangraphs.com – Segura trade value analysis.

Kyle Tucker is the 8th most valuable prospect in baseball, Sixto Sanchez is slightly behind him at 16th most valuable prospect.

link to fangraphs.com – Sixto trade value analysis.

David Parkinson is a 45V pitching prospect, so if you are bullish on him he’s $6M, if you are boarish he’s $4M, so we split the difference and call him $5M.

link to fangraphs.com – Parkinson trade value analysis.

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Kingery was a mid level top 100 prospect (#50) which is worth $40ish million in trade value, however Kingery has burnt his cheapest season of control, and due to his long term contract, can’t be sent to the minors to extend control or to lower salary until ready to perform at a high level which steals a ton of that value. If you remove the guaranteed money from $41M, you are left with $18M minus a season of control and we’ll say he’s worth about $15M in excess value.

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1B FA from 2017/2018 offseason….

Lucas Duda $3.5M/1 year ~ 1.1 WAR (’17) ~ signed age 32 season
Yonder Alonso $16M/2 years ~ 1.9 WAR (’17) ~ signed age 31 & 32 seasons
Mitch Moreland $13M/2 years ~ 2.0 WAR (’17) ~ signed age 32 & 33 seasons
Carlos Santana $60M/3 years ~ 3.4 WAR (’17) ~ signed age 32, 33, & 34 seasons

While a year older now, his production in 2018 was in line with Moreland and Alonso from last year. Had Philadelphia been more patient, it is safe to say they would’ve paid substantially less given the other deals that were signed after Santana’s ridiculous contract.

Santana was worth 1.7 WAR and is a year older than Moreland was last year and two years older than Alonso at the same time. Given this information, I doubt he would match either of their contracts, meaning he’d be in a 1 year for $5.5M to 2 year for $9.5M range. Meaning his contract has nearly $32M in negative value.

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