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Using a time horizon of 36?months, the Markov model converted monthly death probabilities in 3-year LE values. Three-year survival benefit of LT (gain in LE) was calculated by subtracting the no-LT LE predictions from the post-LT LE predictions. One-way sensitivity analyses were used to graphically describe the 3-year survival benefit in months at different MELD and MELD-Na values. Statistical significance was set http://www.selleckchem.com/products/ly2157299.html at P? http://www.selleckchem.com/products/z-vad-fmk.html The majority of them (61%) had viral cirrhosis. As direct consequence of our priority policy, the only significant differences between the WL and the post-LT groups were the median MELD score in patients without HCC and the percentage of HCC patients; both these values, in fact, were significantly higher at LT than at listing (Table?1). Median time in the WL was 9?months (IQR, 3�C21). Sixty-one patients (18%) died waiting for LT, 9 (3%) were excluded because of tumor progression and died after a median time of 3?months after exclusion, 220 underwent LT and formed the post-LT group of this study. Tumor progression was judged of sufficient clinical relevance as to make dropout from the WL unavoidable when HCC developed macroscopic vascular invasion or extra-hepatic metastases. In the WL Cox model (Table?2), MELD-Na significantly predicted survival (HR?=?1.1162; 95% CI?=?1.0704�C1.1643; P? http://www.selleck.cn/products/BIBW2992.html 95% CI?=?1.0180�C1.0912; P?=?0.0045) slightly better than MELD score (HR?=?1.0540; 95% CI?=?.0120�C1.0868), P?=?0.0109). In the post-LT model, neither MELD-Na (HR?=?1.0082; 95% CI?=?0.9550�C1.0603; P?=?0.7608) nor MELD score (HR?=?0.9980; 95% CI?=?0.9446�C1.0493; P?=?0.9413) was correlated with post-LT survival. Three-year overall post-LT patient survival was 78%. According to the DEALE method [11] (Technical Appendix), this value corresponded to a monthly death probability of 0.0069, while the Markov model calculated a 3-year LE of 31.9?months. We preferred to use this value of LE as a constant in the transplant benefit Markov model because of the absence of a significant correlation between MELD and MELD-Na and post-LT survival. Figure?1 shows a strict relationship between MELD and MELD-Na scores and LT transplant benefit at 3?years. This effect was similar for MELD and MELD-Na, as WL survival curves largely overlapped both with Cox and CR analyses (Fig.?1a and b).