The Financial Crisis Support Group

ok tom, you say insulate...explain?

Yes, explain insulate, please. What do we do, cash out of all the financial institutions and stuff our money ( or, what's left of it) in our mattress? I am not trying to be sarcastic, at all. I am sincere in my question.

I too am sincere tom, losing money when you dont have money to lose is painful.

Go long Oil Gold and Bonds. wave 3 to the downside is on the doorstep. V shaped recovery is hype.
The next two weeks will tell us the story. S&P may have already turned 1149 seems its maximum short term upside and in high volitile days (echoes of long distant max volitile days) these two weeks in October are the all time worst two weeks in a calander year especially years ending in 7 and then 0, 4 and then 9. September is the worst month on average but there are two very dangerous weeks in October. The next worst month are November and then March. I think we will either see the S&P turn south this next two weeks or the second week in November. DJIA will break the decade low of 6547 (March 09) some time next year in 2010. Fed to continually say they want a stronger $ but USD to continually devalue. Its beyond US Financial regulators help. The three countries that can do something about it are China, Saudies and Japan. Japan will be the first nation into Depression Q1 2010, followed by USA. Japan still has large USD stockpiles and is getting rid of them while they are worth something. China with its 1.4 Trillion $ stimulus package has spent 38% of it on stockpiling resources for the next 5 years growth. They are shutting steel mills but still buying record amounts of bauxite, coal and iron ore. I should hnow I'm in Australia. Honestly this place will float away soon we are exporting so much of it to China alternativly we could fill so many huge holes in the ground with water we could change the global climatic patterns and instead of being the dryiest continant on the planet we could become the second dryiest. Saudies still want US to pay Gold for Oil, theyve got two chances Buckleys and Nunn. Gold could retest 1030 before rallying to 1100 by christmas.
2010 s the year it will get nasty again re indexes. Comercial sub prime etc.
Did you know US Banking institutions have been allowed by Law to carry the book values of properties they had lent on prior to the sub prime melt down. These are the values they are currently carrying.
Talk about unethical. Comercial sub prime had longer honeymoon periods (5 years) not 2 years and they will start to hit the fan next year. US Govt cant hold the can for the three big auto's the two bigest banks and the largest Global insurer for ever. One of them has to give. Some how I dont think this Govt. will forcably engineer a phony war with an Arab state like the last Regime did. Some how I dont think Obama and his administration are that corrupt even if Iran does bate the living daylights out of the US.. Think N Korea is more of a work with an increasingly senile maniac old man at the helm. At least he's been quiet latley.
Either way US hasn't got the coin to throw at another large war and further have to cow tow to China for export revinue of high end technology in order for China to continue growing and have a beneficial knock on effect on Japan, ie try stemming the hemorage in Japan.
Will the USA be able to avoid the failed economic monetry policies of Japan through the '80's as the US is in their old shoes right now. Itsnot like there is much room to move re inflation adjustment unless they want to lace the economy into a deflationary scenario and we havnt seen that for a while. I think Obama would have a crack at re instituting Gold Standard before a deflationary scenario or perhaps he might introduce an Oil stsndard to anchor the economy seings Oil has replaced Gold as the secure commodity of choice since '75.
Oil to decouple and differentiate from the indexes as we go forward.

The Dow's Worst Years
Rank Year Close % Change
1 1931 77.90 -52.67
2 1907 58.75 -37.73
3 1930 164.58 -33.77
4 1920 71.95 -32.90
5 1937 120.85 -32.82
6 1914 54.58 -30.72
7 1974 616.24 -27.57
8 1903 49.11 -23.61
9 1932 59.93 -23.07
10 1917 74.38 -21.71


Hope you can descern whats the best thing to do for your family etc.

Cheers
Al

thanks ali5, not sure i understand but no surprise there, feeling pretty fucked at the moment, I am sure there are no "easy" or "for sure" answers.
Plan for the worst
HOPE FOR THE BEST
and yes I know:
Hope is not a plan