The Financial Crisis Support Group

I foresee a good correction next week in the global stocks........and its the best time to make use of this fall. AND I CAN ASSURE YOU STOCKS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME THE TOAST OF THE NATION.
BUT PLEASE REMEMBER LIKE A CANDLE BURNS TO ITS BRIGHTEST BEFORE EXTINGUISHING - THESE STOCKS HAVE TO BE SOLD AT THEIR HIGHEST PRICES IN THIS SHARP RISE. BEST OF LUCK

My very strong gut feeling tells me that they are moving up north (zip zap zoom) - with phenomenal speed in the week after next ie. 13th July onwards. Please don’t play short. Make use of this sharp rise and sell off your stocks. All the best. ~ ATM

Thanks for the tips atm.....I've missed you're mind....I will def look into...I have a common sense approach to investing...(prob ADD more than anything)....I just look at what my kids are into, and what I "need" to get thru each day and buy, buy, buy......(I like that button!)

Thank you Bitemepa,
For reposing faith in my belief. Did u hear the interview broadcast of Mr Buffet who said the unemployment could hit 11% and that a second stimulus package was needed for the economy to recover from recession.

“We’re not in a freefall, but we’re not in a recovery either,” he said in the interview. “We were in a freefall really in the last quarter of last year, starting in the financial markets and spreading to the economy, and we had this huge change in behavior.”
Mr. Buffett, a supporter of President Barack Obama during last year’s election campaign, said a second economic stimulus package might be needed. The Obama administration says it does not see a need for a second stimulus yet.
“I think a second one may well be called for. It is not a panacea. A stimulus is the right thing. You hope it doesn’t get watered down,” he said.

and on the same line Mr Paul Krugman noted economist and columnist for NYtimes said:

July 10, 2009, 8:24 am
Economists oppose more stimulus?
That’s the headline of this WSJ article. And it’s true that most of the economic forecasters they surveyed don’t want more stimulus. But the question is why.
And here’s the thing: it’s NOT because they think a solid recovery is on the way. On the contrary, their outlook is quite bleak: on average, the surveyed economists expect unemployment to rise to 10 percent, still be 10 percent in June 2010, and fall only to 9.5 percent by the end of 2010. And a fair number of the forecasters — including Jan Hatzius of Goldman, whose analysis I follow closely, and has been spot on so far — think that unemployment will actually rise through 2010.
So they’re not saying that everything’s OK, no stimulus needed. They’re saying that they don’t like stimulus. And why should you be surprised? These are business economists; they’re generally conservative.
Aside from the value judgments, one thing I find really puzzling in this set of forecasts is the view on inflation. Remember, here’s what has been happening to wages in the face of high unemployment:

Now, if you think that unemployment is going to be at or above current levels for the next 18 months, wouldn’t you think there would be a significant risk of deflation? In fact, however, the average forecast is for an inflation rate of 1.7 percent next year. What’s the logic?
Bottom line: when I look at those unemployment projections, they look very bleak, and suggest that we’re in serious danger of falling into deflation. That is, to me they make the case FOR another stimulus.

And ofcourse withstanding the the hype this media had created that the 2nd stimulus package was necessary............................................AND AS EXPECTED THE HON. PRESIDENT NEGATED IT PROMPTING PEOPLE TO SELL......BUT ON THE CONTRARY THIS IS THE LAST FINAL SURGE OF THE MARKET UP NORTH. I KNEW ALL THIS WUD BE COMING AND HENCE HAD PREDICTED THIS SHARP RISE AFTER THE 13TH jULY 2009. BECAUSE AS PER MR WARREN BUFFET'S WORDS BUY ON BAD NEWS AND SELL ON GOOD NEWS. ALL THE BEST TO YOU.

sniff sniff ....what do i smell...OMG ...OIL could rise very sharply from here since there is quite a possibility (God forbid) of a flare up between Iran and Israel. Please don’t play short. Follow the media like a Pied Piper. See how they as usual are ambivalent, speaking in different voices to dissuade you from going long. Be a CONTRARIAN.

My analysis of the situation for the SPX, DJIA, NASDAQ, NYMEX Oil, Gold.
Havn't done T-Notes, Wheat or T-Bonds yet. Wheat & cerials clearly tied to Oil costs.

The SPX.

The Origin = high of @ 1565.15 points on 09 Oct '07

Point ((G) Wave completion in an extended X wave pattern) retracment on the 21 Dec '07 at 1484.46 points broke the 4 year Bull market cycle on the S &P500 and confirmed the change from Bull Market to Bear Market.

Upon the (G) wave completion Glenn announced a re-confirmation of the 4 to 6 year Bear Market that he originally forecast in Jan 2009.

Impulsive (fast) Wave 1(A) (down - of a larger corrective pattern) (a, b, c, d, e) completed on 22 Jan '08, 106 days, at 1310.50 points, Down -254.65 points, a 16.27% retracment, or if taken from (G) to (A) as Glenn would do (173.96 points) is 13.27%

Corrective (a, b, c) Wave 2 (B) (up) - completed on 19 May '08, 119 days, at 1426.63 points, up 116.13 points, a 8.86% rally.

Impulsive (fast) Wave 3 minor (C, D, E (E) was exceptionally fast with a double extension down) - completed on 09 Oct '08, *** 144 Days***(Most Major Gann Number), Down 516.71 points.

This (E) wave completion, completed the Wave 1 Impulsive wave of the Major Corrective time pattern - two options Down 655.2 points in 367 Days (365 Major Gann Number) or from point (G) confirmation. The Wave 1 Corrective wave of the Major Corrective time pattern - 21 Dec'07 to 09Oct '08 - 294 Days, down 574.54 points to 909.92.

Wave 4 minor (time wasting slow up - completed on 12 June '09 = 247 days (8months & 4days) only 36.29 points up to 946.21 points

Wave 4 which is also the Wave 2 of the larger Major corrective pattern - completed on 12 June '09 247 days (8months & 4days) only 36.29 points (hence Tolly’s advice to not trade wave 4 for position or long term investment/SMSF trades. The Wave 2 and Wave 4 alternation of time and range are very solid. The ratios are 116.13 points Vs 36.29 points (3.2: 1) contrasted with 119 Days Vs 247 Days (1: 2.07). Notice (3.2: 1) alternates (1: 2.07) very well IAW the rules of alternation Wave 2 and Wave 4, hence my strong belief that we are about to see a fast a, b, c, (minimum) impulsive pattern to the downside (Wave 3 in the larger time frame). Remember Wave 3 Impulsive wave can NEVER be the shortest in terms of price. It is common for Wave 3 can be the longest therefore wave 3 may equal or be greater than Wave 1. Remember Wave 1 of the Corrective wave of the Major Corrective time pattern has two options;

Firstly Down 655.2 points in 367 Days (365 Major Gann Number) or

Secondly from point (G) confirmation - the Wave 1 Corrective wave of the Major Corrective time pattern - 21 Dec'07 to 09Oct '08 - 294 Days, down 574.54 points to 909.92.

The minimum price limit on Impulsion is 38.2% provided wave 3 is NEVER being the shortest.

The common price limits on impulsion are 61.8% to 200%.

The maximum price limits on impulsion is 275%.

38.2% of wave 1 (574.54 points) = 219 Points from end wave 4 (946.21 points = a minimum downside of 727 Points on the S&P500 but this is eliminated because it doesn’t break to new lows which it must do to fulfil the overlapping criteria. 38.2% is ruled out

I favour a 61.8 % down or matched 100% down 574.54 points of Wave 1 Corrective wave of the Major Corrective time pattern – (21 Dec'07 to 09Oct '08) - 294 Days, down 574.54. Therefore the range is 61.8% (of wave 1 = 355 points down in an a, b, c move from 946.21 points = a price level of 591.21 points on the S&P500 which I consider the minimum target an which breaks the 665.75 intra day low in the 2nd week march ‘09.

100% W1 down or 574.54 points from 946.21 points = 371.67 points on the S&P500.

Hells bloody bells, somewhere between 591.21 points and 371.67 points on the S&P500 for the completion of wave 3 of the Major Corrective time pattern. 591.21 points are favoured.

Given the minimum time limits on impulsion are 100%,

Common time limits on impulsion are 161.8%, and 261% is questionable, 294 Days from is Thursday the 30 July 2009, which is 17 days away. An immediate rapid fall is eliminated by the rules for both time and price for 3rd wave of impulsions. 161.8% x 294 Days = 475 days and equates to 27 Jan 2010 which is preferred. (From 879 points today to 591.21 points in 199 days, (6 months, 15 days). If its still above 591.21 points on 27 Jan 2010 then it means its going lower over a longer period.

I then expect the Wave 4 Corrective wave of the Major Impulsive time pattern to take a minimum of 61.8% to 100 % of wave 3 time (144 Days) but 161.8% of 144 days is possible = 232 days from the forecast 27 Jan 2010 which is 16 Sept 2010 which lines up well for a initial final impulsive 5th wave fall in sept /oct 2010 establishing a contracting triangle down which may take 18 months to complete. Wave 5 will break to new lows (possibly only just if wave 3 breaks to 371.67 points on the S&P500) and can be the shortest wave in both time and price. Dec 2011 the maximum low at the earliest and Sunday, 5 August 2012 is the latest due to the rule that a 5-wave structure is always corrective and that we are coming of a corrective alternation in the major time period (March 2003 to Dec 2007 was corrective). We must therefore be in an impulsive wave, which can not exceed the previous corrective wave time period. N/B Support at 450 and 350.

DJIA to mirror SPX in terms of % movements.

NASDAQ to outperform both in a posative sence by loosing less than either.

Oil hit my forcast target of $60US/B by Q2 '09 further complexing deflationary synario in a dollar devaluing enviroment. I was also correct in forcasting Oil (NYMEX) going back up to oscilate between $60 and $75 $US/B in Q2 but I was wrong about it not retracing timm 2010. As you have seen Oil is retracing and will break its $32 low most likley this year as I percieve it leading the stock markets. Max downside for oil is $21 US/B, 2010 to 2012.

Re Gold I'm looking for DJIA @5000 and S&P500 @500 points with Gold making a DJIA/Gold ratio of 1 : 5 between now and 5 August 2012. The realistic upside for Gold is $1030.I was wrong about Gold "may already being on its way to retest $650. I still expect it to 1:5 ratio. The Gold : DJIA may well achieve the 1:5 on this DJIA Wave 3 impulsion between now and 27 Jan 2010 is most likley. Once it achieves 1 : 5 then concider continuous contract shorts on Gold. Once Golds achieved 1 : 5 done that it will return to @300 an ounce Long term average's over a relatively short period of time (impulsive) ie 2 years given the 8 year corrective pattern (Bull Market 2001 low to now). Silver has been the stronger Sister of the precious metals and I expect silvers retrace to be subsequantly be more volitile than Gold.

Havn't done T-Notes or T-Bonds yet.

USDI to tank and deflate in line initially with Oil (Nymex).

Chinese Yuan to be fully floated and thus release it from artificial 'peg' with USD before 2012, before the USD is devalued.

China to decrease stockpiling Aussie Resources. BHP, RIO to slide signifigantly as a result in 2011 and 2012. Strong demand returned by 2015 as China powers ahead.

Saudies still want Gold from US for their Oil. Saudies dont understand 1:5 ratio. Pay them Gold I say.

What is the US Fed's Gold reserve. Better spend your Gold while its worth something.

China wont save the world. Western World to grow by -2%GDP in Q3,Q4 2010, 2011 and 2012 back to back. China to maintain its 5% advantage by growing at +3.5% not the 7.6% forcast.

Cheap USD will provide the currancy for the Global rally post 2012 for 20 years.

US inflation to mirror Japanese policy from the 80's and 90's.

Enormous foreign US Dollar borrowing to come once devalued @2012.

Aust Property to bottom 2013.

US trying to stave of emerging Chinese global dominance. US will fail. By 2032 China will dominate control of the World economy.

US will go Green to leverage power via the UN and challange China. China will be enviromentally/politically isolated and sanctions /imbargoes imposed by Europe and USA. Protectionism and subsidies to continue and increase.

Brazil to out perform.

USD unwinding post 2032 as inflation sets in as final nail in US coffin.


Cheers

"Al from Oz

This reads like the thinking and stock touting that got us into our current mess in the first place, not to mention all the other financial panics over the last two centuries.

Just let me know when I should jump off the roof. Cheers.

Wow the markets were up from the 13th as expected. (13th to 16th were all gains)Contrary to mainstream thinking I feel DJIA may try to penetrate 8000 for atleast once - to effectively go up north. Just for once 8000 - 8100 cud get cut because cutting 8900 has always been difficult. So i feel ppl may sell here to book profits and let it fall. Overall the market is bullish. They are merely tying to ward you off. Stick to your ground. August is going to see the peak. Have faith in me. I wud never misguide anyone. Love to you all. ~ ATM

Invest in LEAD!
There will be a big demand in it. The world economic crises will destabilize week governments around the world. We saw this with Iran, but we could see it happen to "so called" friends, as well. If you remember, it started with Greece.
World governments will erode until we end up in WW3.
If I remember right, lead, copper, tin, tungsten, and aluminum will go through the roof.
Ten years ago I told people to invest in weapons, they went through the roof.
Now, I say metals. If you are alive in ten years, you will be rich.